Around The League // Week 9
Parity reigns supreme this season after several of the league’s top sides tasted defeat at the hands of the league’s so-called underdogs. Welcome back to Around The League, your home for numbers and nuance from the past week of action in the Major Arena Soccer League.
The Tacoma Stars rejoined a crowded top of the table, and the St. Louis Ambush turned heads by taking four points from their weekend series against the Milwaukee Wave, but we’ll start in Southern California, where the Empire Strykers emphatically bested the Kansas City Comets, extending their unbeaten run to three games.
Don’t Let Empire Get a Lead
The league’s longest winning streak currently belongs to a team sitting in 6th place, with all three triumphs coming against teams in the top four. One of this season’s under-appreciated story lines has been Empire’s superb defense, but it’s becoming impossible to ignore their results.
Head coach Onua Obasi’s team prioritizes possession and control, often with their goalkeeper joining the attack to overload a team numerically and pin them deep. However, they’ve also adopted a new tactic in recent weeks, and it’s tangibly winning them more games.
They’re blowing teams away by continuing to throw numbers forward after gaining possession, especially when they’re leading. So far, the Strykers are 2-0 when leading games at half and 3-0 when leading after the third quarter. When they take the lead, they rarely relinquish it; they push for another goal rather than sit back and defend to preserve it.
The result is a faster, more explosive game, closer to the play we see when the score is tied. These game-state warriors don’t care if they’re leading by one goal or four; they just keep adding to their lead, putting the game to bed in a much more effective way than sitting back defensively.
We can see this in their wins over San Diego, Tacoma, and, most recently, Kansas City. Empire had leads, both early and late, and they kept throwing numbers forward in transition, hoping to exploit a numerical advantage and create dangerous scoring opportunities when their opponents were pushing forward to get back into the game. Those chances are significantly more likely to result in a goal, and as a result, the Strykers are holding on to leads extremely well and winning games by comfortable margins.
This is aided and empowered by a defense that’s become one of the league’s most formidable this season. Robert Palmer, Filipe Dutra, and Alan Perez are hosting a block party with forty combined blocks, 25 of which are credited to Palmer. However, they’re not just blocking shots; they’re preventing them.
The Strykers face the fewest shots per game (21.182) in the league, and their defensive GPS is below average, indicating that the shots they allow are not particularly dangerous. This devastating combination is why Empire concedes the fewest goals per game in the MASL (4.455).
The Strykers use their defensive acumen to their advantage, outshooting their opponents by the widest margin in the league, with a +33 Hoxie. If a team can consistently outshoot its opponents, and its chance creation is at least average as Empire’s is, it’ll be in a position to win more games than it loses, and right now, no team is remotely close to the Strykers in that regard. In fact, Empire’s Hoxie figure is 18 more than the next best team.
Offensively, they have a tremendous cast of talent, with Mounir Alami, Steven Chavez, Walter Diaz, and Justin Stinson all reaching double figures for points. They excel at creating and taking shots, especially in transition, but they could use some help when they’re not winning. They don’t appear to have a way back into games when they’re trailing, given they are yet to win a game when trailing after the third quarter; they’re 0-5 in those situations, and score roughly 12% of their shots, nearly half the rate they typically score at.
So, as Empire prepares to face Kansas City this weekend with games against Baltimore and Utica on the horizon, we’ll see if they’re capable of replicating and imposing their game plan against a top team on the road. Don't miss their trip to face the Comets this Friday, Jan. 30, at 8:05 PM EST.
St. Louis Isn't a Dark Horse
Despite an overtime loss that no doubt left a sour taste in their mouths, the St. Louis Ambush deserve a lot of praise and a bit more respect. As we approach February, they’re within touching distance of the league’s very best, and they’re not afraid to go toe-to-toe with anyone.
Halfway through their season, the Ambush boasts an underrated resume. They’ve secured two wins against Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Empire. In fact, the only team they’ve played but haven’t beaten is Tacoma, whom they took to a shootout on the road. In the standings, their statistical footprint leaves no trace. They sit fifth in the table with a negative goal differential, yet their underlying numbers tell a very different story.
St. Louis does a great job of generating shots. They take the third-most shots per game in the MASL, but it’s their efficiency that makes them so dangerous. It may seem counterintuitive to say they currently have the lowest Offensive Goals Per Shot (GPS) in the league, but remember that half of their games were against the Comets, notoriously one of the most formidable defenses in the league. If we look at their other six games, the Ambush become the league’s most efficient attacking force, finding the net on 27.5% of their shots, 2.3% more than Milwaukee’s league-leading 25.2%.
If that wasn’t enough, they’ve shown a remarkable ability to prevent dangerous shooting opportunities this season, boasting the third-best Defensive GPS, behind only the Comets and the Sockers. It’s worth noting that all three teams are so close together statistically that, to separate them, I needed to add a further two decimal places because three wasn’t enough. According to Defensive GPS stats, the three best defenses are San Diego (0.19588), Kansas City (0.19617), and St. Louis (0.19632). Not bad company.
Even if you’re able to get a shot off against the Ambush that isn’t blocked or missed, you’ll need to get past Paulo Nascimento in goal. The Brazilian shot stopper has long been counted among the league’s elite, but even by his own lofty standards, he’s having a career year. Paulo has the league’s third-highest Save Percentage (.728) while facing the most shots of any keeper in the MASL, and using the league’s average on-target shot conversion figure as a barometer, he’s prevented 10.576 more goals than expected from hitting the back of his net.
He’s not the only player making waves this season; much of the Ambush’s jump in attacking aptitude can be accounted for by new signing Daniel Torrealba. The 24-year-old is a lightning rod, ready and willing to be the focal point going forward. He’s second in the league for shots, just behind MASL top-scorer Alex Sanchez, and he leads his team in goals, points, and, crucially, fouls. If he can stay out of the penalty box and on the turf, there’s a very real chance he could be in the running for MVP come April.
St. Louis will enjoy a break this weekend, allowing them to recover and prepare for a difficult second half of the season. February will prove vital as we learn just how capable this Ambush side is, with a game against Tacoma on Feb. 7, before hitting the road for a trip to Baltimore and Utica the following weekend. If they can get six points from those three games, it will be hard to argue that they’re a force to be reckoned with; just don’t call them dark horses.