Around The League // Week 11
There’s never a dull day in the MASL, even in the middle of February. Welcome back to Around the League, your home for numbers and nuance from the past week of action in the MASL. We have a new league leader after Milwaukee took down Kansas City, but we’ll start with a leadership change in upstate New York.
Action Taken In Utica
The recap of Utica’s trip out west was supposed to be a positive one, but the news that dropped on Tuesday morning made that impossible. After four wins in 13 games, Utica City FC decided to move on from head coach Hewerton Moreira, with general manager Tommy Tanner taking over the bench managerial duties in the interim. The announcement comes days after Hewerton’s side won a thriller against Empire, 10-9, before dropping the second game of the weekend against San Diego.
Against the Strykers, Utica looked energized and poised to make a statement. They became the first team to outshoot the Strykers since the Sockers on Jan. 3, and their 0.333 GPS was the second-best shot conversion rate Utica’s had all season. Their incredible attacking performance would not be denied a crucial win, as Nilton de Andrade scored the game-winning goal and his fourth point of the nigh, with 32 seconds left.
The night couldn’t have gone better in front of goal, but the team’s defensive troubles ensured they never enjoyed comfort. Empire also finished the game with a shot-conversion rate over 30%, and could count themselves unlucky with a few bad bounces and missed chances. Utica took a lead six times on the night, but it wasn’t until the final whistle sounded that their lead felt safe.
For Utica, this is a symptom of an issue that’s plagued them all season. Their defense concedes dangerous shooting opportunities at a significantly higher rate than any other team, with an average Defensive GPS of 0.294, significantly higher than the next highest, Tacoma, at 0.245. Based on the league average conversion rate, Utica has conceded 23.302 more goals than expected, nearly two per game. Tanner alluded to these defensive struggles while speaking with the Rome Sentinel about the departure.
“Our record wasn’t great. We’d given up a lot of goals,” he said, “We’re looking forward toward next year, next season.”
Given their wins over Baltimore, Empire and it’s clear that this team is capable of competing with the teams around them in the standings, but they’ve struggled against the league’s top three sides. When looking exclusively at their six games against Milwaukee, Kansas City, and San Diego, they accumulated just three points and had a defensive GPS of 0.302.
This is a young team, with significantly fewer indoor games under its collective belt, and going into the season without several veteran leaders, this was always going to be a difficult plane to land. Clearly, the results were not good enough, and Utica must now finish the remainder of its season, forging a new path.
They’re not out of the playoff hunt; far from it. With just five points separating them and sixth-placed Baltimore, three points would go a long way to creating that path. As it happens, their next game will be at home against the Blast, one day after Baltimore hosts the Ambush at TU Arena. Utica will have a chance to play its game, impose its will on its rivals, and use the Blast’s tired legs to its advantage.
I don’t use this term often, but this game is clearly a must-win if Utica wants any hope of making the playoffs this season. Kickoff for this crucial clash against the Blast is scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 15, at 3:00 PM EST at the Adirondack Bank Center.
Has Milwaukee Put One Hand On The MASL Shield?
The Wave saved its best performance against the Comets for their last meeting on Tuesday morning, with a lights-out defensive showing and finishing to make your head spin. Head Coach Marcio Leite and his team are humming, with three wins over Kansas City and two over San Diego, but this weekend will be crucial to their MASL Shield hopes.
In their 10-6 win over the Comets, Milwaukee found tremendous success in transition, even from traditional possession. Thanks to a quick start that saw them lead by as many as six goals, the Wave forced their rivals to press by pushing the ball upfield, recycling possession, getting subs, and then, as Kansas City closed in, they’d play through the press or dump it long to the targets, allowing their midfielders and defenders to make dangerous runs into the attacking area.
Mario Alvarez and Alex Sanchez racked up five and four points, respectively, while target forwards Andre Hayne and Oscar Flores added a goal and two assists each. Five other players found the scoresheet while goalkeeper William Banahene finished the game with 15 saves on 21 shots.
They’re flying high by nearly every metric, even defensively. Earlier this season, I was critical of their inability to prevent extremely dangerous chances, with a significant amount of their opponents' goals coming from inside the penalty area. They’ve improved in that regard with a defensive GPS of 0.190 in their last eight games, which include games against Empire, Kansas City, San Diego, St. Louis, and Utica; not exactly an easy run.
At this point, looking forward, we need to start talking about the MASL Shield race, because it involves way more teams than you might think. Milwaukee and San Diego have the fewest dropped points this season with just 15 each, while Kansas City sits in sixth with 21. Separating them are Tacoma (19), Baltimore (19), and St. Louis (18), meaning six teams are within six points of first place. This way of thinking offers us an alternate version of the league table, and reminds us just how close things are at the top.
If you ask Erik Bergrud, the golden rule of the MASL is “Don’t expect other teams to do you any favors,” and there will be no favors done by any of those other five teams, but when looking at the back half of the schedule, it starts to open up for the Wave after February. A difficult road trip to Tacoma and Empire, before a back-to-back against Baltimore and St. Louis are Milwaukee’s biggest hurdles before March. After that, they’ll visit Utica and then host their last five straight, with just one two-game weekend.
This is as unpredictable of a season as any we’ve ever seen in the MASL, but given the remaining schedules, if the Wave can come home with at least five points, the Shield is Milwaukee’s to lose. Their next tests are the aforementioned trips to Tacoma and Empire, two teams that thrive on home turf.
Six points here, while very difficult, would put Milwaukee firmly in the drivers seat of the Shield race, and force the chasing pack to keep up. Milwaukee’s first game of the weekend will be against the Stars on Sunday, Feb. 15 at 8:05 PM EST, before they head south to face the Strykers on Monday, at 9:35 PM EST.